中国A股市场估值体系的理论探索和政策含义

Theoretical Exploration and Policy Implications of the Valuation Framework in China's A-Share Stock Market

  • 摘要: 建设既遵循资本市场一般规律,又结合中国经济发展特征、体制机制特色和企业可持续发展能力的中国特色估值体系(简称中特估),是不断提升经济金融适配性、更好发挥资本市场枢纽功能、引导资金支持高质量发展的关键之举。本文以中国A股市场为例,从界定估值体系中具有中国特色的“价值”入手,揭示了重构中国资本市场的定价逻辑和估值理念时需要充分考虑企业创造的有别于股东权益价值的社会价值部分。围绕企业自身为利益相关方创造的价值和企业通过生产网络对总体经济产生的乘数效应这两个反映中国式现代化理念和中国经济发展特征的指标,本文构建了企业社会价值变量。研究结果表明,将社会价值纳入定价范围能带来更高的股票收益率并显著提升企业的市场估值,然而,遵循经典市场估值逻辑的投资者并没有对社会价值进行合理定价,导致社会价值大的企业估值偏低。在指出将企业社会价值纳入市场估值范围是构建中特估的关键之后,本文进一步探讨了建立中特估过程中存在的难点和节点问题,并对如何重构中国资本市场估值体系提出了具体的政策建议。

     

    Abstract: The construction of a valuation system with Chinese characteristics is a crucial step towards enhancing the adaptability and pivotal role of the capital market and supporting the high-quality development of China's economy.This paper systematically addresses three key questions regarding the construction of the valuation system with Chinese characteristics.Firstly,which pricing factor is important for the Chinese valuation system? Secondly,has this factor been incorporated into the current market valuation models? Thirdly,if not,how can it be included in the valuation system? We propose that the valuation system with Chinese characteristics should consider the total social value created by firms,rather than solely focusing on the net present value of profits for shareholders.The measure of a firm's total social value should encompass two aspects:①stakeholder value,including the benefits to employees,suppliers,customers,debt holders,and governments; ②the multiplier effect that a firm generates for the overall economy through its production network.This measure not only reflects an orientation towards improving people's welfare but also fully embodies the prominent features of the importance of the node industry in China's economic growth model. We empirically examine whether the total social value has been priced using China's A-share sample stocks from 2003 to 2021.The results indicate that firms with high social value demonstrate superior fundamental performance.The portfolio of high social value stocks can generate excess stock returns that cannot be explained by existing pricing factors.Investors are more likely to underestimate the earning performance of firms with strong social value.These findings suggest a mispricing and undervaluation of the social value factor in China's current capital market valuation system. The reconstruction of the valuation system with Chinese characteristics is an ongoing and lengthy process.It requires simultaneous efforts from the investment side and the corporate side to mutually cultivate capital and assets that recognize social value.Our policy recommendations include:Firstly,standardizing and strengthening the disclosure of information related to corporate social value.Secondly,enhancing investor education and leveraging the role of professional institutional investors to focus more on information related to social value.Thirdly,from the investment side,cultivating long-term capital for social value,such as insurance,pensions,social security,and annuities,and developing broad-based index products.Fourthly,encouraging Chinese enterprises to proactively strengthen their strategic and operational management capabilities in creating social value.Lastly,strengthening systematic research on the valuation system of Chinese characteristics.

     

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