为什么中国应该实施积极的宏观政策?——一个基于“国家整体价值-政策空间”假说的政策框架

Why Should China Adopt More Proactive Macroeconomic Policies?—A Policy Framework Based on the Complete Value-Policy Space Hypothesis

  • 摘要: 以GDP作为宏观政策锚定的指标容易高估宏观杠杆率,低估一个国家通过积极宏观政策应对经济下滑的政策空间。本文提出以国家整体价值(CV) 而不是GDP作为政策锚定的宏观指标并构建相应的政策空间变量。在将政策空间变量添加到GHSS(2022)的金融危机预测模型后,我们发现衡量信贷扩张和资产价格繁荣的变量不再具有预测金融危机的能力。同时,我们发现政策空间的影响对于全要素生产率增速快和资本配置效率高的经济体更为显著。本文的实证结果显示金德尔伯格-明斯基假说并不适用于基本面良好、政策空间较大的经济体。因为中国的整体价值远远大于GDP,而且长期经济增速高于公共债务利率,因此中国具备实施积极宏观政策的巨大空间。本文提出基于国家整体价值的宏观政策框架并列出具体政策举措,助力中国经济回归到稳健增长的轨道。

     

    Abstract: Using GDP as a macro-policy objective tends to overstate a nation's macro leverage ratio and understate its potential to employ countercyclical policies during economic downturns. In this paper, we propose using the complete value (CV) instead of GDP as the objective for macro-policies and construct a policy space variable accordingly. Including the policy space variable in the financial crisis prediction model in Greenwood, Hanson, Shleifer and Sørensen (2022), credit growth and asset price boom lose their predictive power of financial crisis. Moreover, we find that the effect of policy space to prevent financial crisis is more pronounced in economies with higher TFP growth and investment efficiency. Our empirical findings suggest that the Kindleberger-Minsky model of financial crisis is less applicable to countries with sound fundamentals and ample policy space. This paper hence argues that China has sufficient policy space for proactive macro-policies with its CV being above the headline GDP and its long-term steady growth rate being above the public debt interest rate. We propose a macro-policy framework based on the CV and recommend several policy measures to help move the Chinese economy back to a steady growth trajectory.

     

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