Abstract:
Using GDP as a macro-policy objective tends to overstate a nation's macro leverage ratio and understate its potential to employ countercyclical policies during economic downturns. In this paper, we propose using the complete value (CV) instead of GDP as the objective for macro-policies and construct a policy space variable accordingly. Including the policy space variable in the financial crisis prediction model in Greenwood, Hanson, Shleifer and Sørensen (2022), credit growth and asset price boom lose their predictive power of financial crisis. Moreover, we find that the effect of policy space to prevent financial crisis is more pronounced in economies with higher TFP growth and investment efficiency. Our empirical findings suggest that the Kindleberger-Minsky model of financial crisis is less applicable to countries with sound fundamentals and ample policy space. This paper hence argues that China has sufficient policy space for proactive macro-policies with its CV being above the headline GDP and its long-term steady growth rate being above the public debt interest rate. We propose a macro-policy framework based on the CV and recommend several policy measures to help move the Chinese economy back to a steady growth trajectory.