广义国际铸币税的来源与测算:以美国为例

The Broad Concepts of International Seigniorage: The Case of the U.S

  • 摘要: 2008年爆发的国际金融危机,引起人们对美元主导的国际货币体系的反思及改革呼声;同时,中国经济高速增长,经济总量位居世界前列,持有高额外汇储备,由此,国内社会各界表达了实施人民币国际化的强烈诉求,并提出了一些政策建议。在此背景下,本文关注在全球货币金融体系中占主导地位的美国获得的国际铸币税,为讨论人民币区域化、国际化的成本与收益问题提供参考。在理论方面,本文提出在现代国际货币体系中,国际货币发行国获得的广义国际铸币税包括中央银行的国际铸币税、政府债券的国际铸币税、商业银行的国际铸币税。在实证方面,本文估算了美国获得的广义国际铸币税,并验证了如下命题:除中央银行的国际铸币税外,政府债券的国际铸币税和商业银行的国际铸币税也是广义国际铸币税的重要组成部分,单纯地依据中央银行获得的国际铸币税进行经验分析和政策决策具有较大的局限性。这些结论对研究人民币区域化、国际化的成本与收益问题提供了参考,具有重要的政策意义。

     

    Abstract: In the modern international monetary system,only very few international currencies with the function of storing value and as the medium of exchange are the central bank currencies (notes and coins),and most are government bonds and commercial bank deposits of the countries that issue international currency.From 1976 to 2022,foreign holdings of U.S.financial assets exhibited the following characteristics.The largest proportion of foreign official holdings of U.S.securities are U.S.government bonds.Most foreign official holdings of U.S.government bonds are treasury bonds.The largest proportion of foreign private holdings of U.S.securities are U.S.corporate bonds and stock other than Treasury securities.The second is U.S.liabilities reported by U.S.banks and securities brokers.The third is U.S.liabilities to unaffiliated foreigners reported by U.S.non-banking concerns.The fourth is U.S.Treasury bonds. In a closed economy,the government can obtain government bonds seigniorage,and commercial bank can obtain commercial banks seigniorage.In an open economy,the governments of countries that issue international currencies can gain government bonds seigniorage from foreign-owned government bonds,referred to as government bonds international seigniorage,and commercial banks can gain seigniorage from foreign-owned deposits,referred to as commercial bank international seigniorage (Canzoneri et al.,2013; Cova et al.,2013).Therefore,international seigniorage gained by countries that issue international currencies includes central bank international seigniorage,government bonds international seigniorage,and commercial banks international seigniorage. The Federal Reserve Banks do not pay interest on Federal Reserve bank notes in circulation outside the U.S.The international seigniorage gained by the Federal Reserve is calculated with the opportunity cost of seigniorage every year,i.e.,the market yield of U.S.Treasury securities at 1-year maturity.The outstanding stock of Federal Reserve bank notes outside U.S.comes from the International Investment Position (IIP) of the United States. Government bonds international seigniorage.Foreign holders of large amounts of U.S.government bonds used for storing value both increased the price of U.S.government bonds and reduced the cost of financing (Greenspan,2005; Craine and Martin,2009; Francis and Warnock,2009; Krishnamurthy and Vissing-Jorgensen,2012).Government bonds international seigniorage is the total of the interest expense saved from financing in international financial markets at a low cost by the government.The categories of foreign-owned U.S.government bonds are very diverse,and the detailed statistics of the balance every year are difficult to gather.Here the data on foreign-owned U.S.government bonds every year (including treasury bonds and other government bonds) comes from the International Investment Position (IIP).Some reports have presented a numerical value for the cost of financing saved by U.S.government bonds (Greenspan,2005; Craine and Martin,2009; Francis and Warnovk,2009).However,the level of interest rates of U.S.government bonds is either high or low in different periods.The cost of financing saved may be underestimated in a period with a high interest rate,and overestimated in a period with a low interest rate.In order to overcome this deficiency,a relatively precise way has been adopted in this paper,where the cost of financing saved by U.S.government bonds account for 10 percent of market yield on U.S.Treasury securities at a 1-year constant maturity.In normal circumstances,market yield on U.S.Treasury securities at a 1-year constant maturity is around 5 percent,and the cost of financing saved is about 50 p.m.,which is relatively close to the empirical analysis results (Greenspan,2005; Craine and Martin,2009; Francis and Warnock,2009). Commercial bank international seigniorage.In the dollar-dominated international monetary system,foreign holding of commercial banks deposits reduces the financing costs of U.S.commercial banks.International seigniorage gained by U.S.commercial banks is the interest expense saved from the international market due to lower financing cost.It equals the amount of foreign-owned liabilities of commercial banks,multiplied by the savings in financing cost.In this paper,the data of foreign-owned liabilities of commercial banks come from the IIP statistics of U.S.liabilities reported by U.S.banks and securities brokers.Following the same reasoning above,the financing cost saved by U.S.commercial banks equals about 12% of the market yield on U.S.Treasury securities with a 1-year maturity. The international seigniorage gained by the U.S.includes international seigniorage gained by the Federal Reserve,government bonds international seigniorage,and commercial bank international seigniorage.The proportions of the three components had small variations but remained roughly equal during 1976 to 2013.First,the international seigniorage gained by commercial banks is the largest component,with the mean,the maximum,and the minimum at 37.45%,47.81%,and 27.05%,respectively.The second largest is the international seigniorage gained by the Federal Reserve with the mean,the maximum,and the minimum at 34.47%,44.44%,and 24.28%,respectively.The least is the government bonds international seigniorage with the mean,the maximum,and the minimum at 28.67%,40.38%,and 22.80%,respectively. Analysis of the international seigniorage gained by the U.S.shows that the central bank’s international seigniorage is only a part of the international seigniorage.Commercial bank international seigniorage and government bonds international seigniorage are equally important.

     

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