城市多中心布局对居民福利的影响——以成都市为例

The Impact of Polycentric Layout on Urban Residents’ Welfare —Evidence from Chengdu

  • 摘要: 本文构建了一个新颖的城市内部空间结构模型,将传统的线性或圆形城市模型框架扩展到了任意形状,首次讨论了城市多中心布局——城市次中心的数量以及位置的选取如何通过改变城市内部空间结构而影响居民福利。当城市次中心数量增加时,城市通勤成本会降低,但多中心导致的企业分散化也可能会降低城市集聚效应。本文以成都市为例,对模型进行了校准检验和反事实分析,探索了不同的空间规划在未来将如何重塑成都市的人口和经济布局,进而影响居民福利。本文的发现为政府的城市空间规划提供了有益参考,文中的模型和数值模拟方法能够适用于不同城市的分析,有助于评估和优化城市多中心布局这一城市化进程中重要的政策举措。

     

    Abstract: This paper develops a novel intra-urban spatial structure model that extends traditional linear or circular city frameworks to accommodate cities of arbitrary shapes.For the first time,it examines how the number and location of urban sub-centers—key components of a polycentric urban layout—affect residents’ welfare by reshaping the spatial structure within cities.The theoretical model assumes that the number and locations of sub-centers are exogenous variables determined by urban planning as well as historical and geographical factors.Given the locations of these sub-centers,the spatial structure of the city is determined.This structure,in turn,influences commuting costs and agglomeration effects,leading to a redistribution of population and economic activities and,consequently,affecting residents’ welfare. The model reveals that increasing the number of sub-centers reduces commuting costs within the city.However,the dispersion of firms caused by a polycentric layout may weaken agglomeration economies.Urban planners must weigh these trade-offs and consider initial conditions such as natural geography and industrial bases to avoid coordination failures in sub-center development.Taking Chengdu as a case study,the paper calibrates the model and conducts counterfactual analyses to explore how different spatial planning strategies might reshape the distribution of population and economic activities,ultimately influencing residents’ welfare. The counterfactual analyses reveal that in monocentric cities,welfare levels are highly sensitive to changes in congestion factors,whereas polycentric cities are more resilient.Thus,under severe congestion,a polycentric layout offers significant potential to alleviate traffic-related challenges often faced by large cities.Moreover,Chengdu’s latest Land Spatial Master Plan (2020-2035),which integrates the existing western sub-center with the CBD area while prioritizing the development of eastern and southern sub-centers,appears well-positioned to enhance agglomeration effects,improve commuting efficiency,and elevate overall welfare. The findings provide valuable insights for urban policymakers in designing spatial plans.Furthermore,the proposed model and numerical simulation approach can be applied to other cities,offering a robust framework for evaluating and optimizing polycentric urban layouts—an increasingly critical policy instrument in the ongoing process of urbanization.

     

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