中国青年创业者特征与其经营情况动态研究

Characteristics and Entrepreneurial Dynamics of Chinese Youth Entrepreneurs: A Microdata-Driven Analysis

  • 摘要: 青年创业是解决青年就业问题、促进经济发展和社会创新的重要途径。然而,青年创业者在经济波动期的特征与表现仍缺乏系统性实证研究。本文基于“中国小微经营者调查”(OSOME)超过20万名创业者(含10万多名青年创业者)的调查数据,致力于探究青年创业者的群体特征、经济波动期的表现特点以及政策支持现状。本文研究发现,青年创业者呈现男性主导(76%)、教育水平持续优化、服务业集中(82%)、一线城市集聚等特点,并通过聚类分析识别出三类典型群体。与非青年创业者相比,青年创业者在行业选择上更加灵活,在经营指标上波动性更大且表现偏弱,在融资行为上呈现“高需求、多渠道、高成本”的特点。此外,研究验证了小微创业作为青年就业“蓄水池”的功能,在外部冲击期间青年创业比例显著上升,在就业环境改善期间则明显收缩,且对经济增长和政策调整等因素反应敏感。本文研究还发现,青年创业者主要面临市场需求疲软、能力局限、信息障碍和资金短缺等挑战,且仍有40%~57%青年创业者未能享受任何政策红利。基于此,本文建议强化内需扩大政策,优化金融支持体系,完善税收优惠政策,提升政策支持精准度,从而构建更加有利于青年创业发展的支持体系。

     

    Abstract: Youth entrepreneurship and employment have long been key topics for academics,policymakers,and society as a whole.The relationship between youth entrepreneurship and employment is interrelated,where entrepreneurial activities generate direct and indirect employment opportunities while stimulating economic growth.The post-pandemic era has intensified global economic uncertainty,disproportionately affecting youth employment.While entrepreneurship is recognized as a critical buffer for labor market instability,existing literature suffers three gaps,namely,overreliance on small-sample surveys,failure to account for dynamic shifts in entrepreneurial behavior,and focus primarilyon university graduates,paying limited attention to broader youth demographics.This study intends to address these gaps by integrating large-scale microdata and a multi-method framework to analyze youth entrepreneurships role in stabilizing employment. This study leverages a dataset of over 200000 entrepreneurs (including>100000 youth aged ≤35) from Peking Universitys Online Survey of Micro and Small Enterprises (OSOME),spanning 2020 Q4-2024 Q3.A multi-method analytical framework was adopted for the subsequent investigation,including using ①descriptive statistics to outline demographic profiles and dynamic trends among young entrepreneurs,②K-means clustering to identify three subgroups based on age,gender,geography,education,and entrepreneurial tenure,and ③fixed-effects panel regression to examine the impact of economic shifts (e.g.,GDP fluctuations,policy adjustments) on youth entrepreneurship across 31 provinces over 16 quarters. The key findings of this study include the following.First,in terms of Demographic and Structural Trends,Chinese youth entrepreneurship exhibits distinct demographic patterns and structural shifts.Young entrepreneurs are predominantly male (76%),with a rising average age of 27.9 years and increasing educational attainment (average years of schooling rose from 12.6 to 13.5 over the observation period).Geographically, more than 50% are concentrated in southeastern coastal provinces(e.g.Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian) and tier-1 cities(Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen),aligning with regional economic opportunity gradients. At a sectoral level, service industry dominates throughout the observation period, while share of manufacturing sector declined over time, reflecting broader industrial upgrading trends. Second,in terms of Subgroup Heterogeneity,Cluster analysis reveals three distinct youth entrepreneur subgroups: ①rural and high-school educated entrepreneurs (51.3%) who are predominantly located in rural and county-level areas with limited formal education; ②urban and highly educated professionals (30.6%) that are concentrated in cities,holding bachelors or advanced degrees; and ③mid-career,college graduates (18.1%) who are predominantly mature-age entrepreneurs leveraging prior work experience in their ventures. Third,in terms of Operational Dynamics and Challenges,this study further reveals that young entrepreneurs face unique operational challenges compared to older counterparts.Their quarterly revenues are significantly lower,and cash flow volatility is more pronounced,heightening susceptibility to economic shocks.Their financing remains a critical barrier,characterized by “high demand,multi-channel reliance,and elevated costs.” Lastly,their policy engagement is uneven where only 43%~62% have had access to subsidies,credit,or tax relief,hindered by information asymmetry,bureaucratic complexity,and misaligned incentives. Fourth,with regard to the policy “reservoir” function,the study shows that amid COVID-19 disruptions (2020 Q4-2021 Q4),youth entrepreneurship acted as a critical labor market “reservoir,” absorbing surplus workers as their share of total entrepreneurs surged from 60.55% to 71.14%.In particular,regression analyses underscore a dual relationship with macroeconomic conditions,where a positive relationship exists between youth entrepreneurship with growth indicates the latter is aligned with GDP expansion and a negative correllation,where pandemic-related restrictions temporarily suppressed entrepreneurial activity,revealing sensitivity to policy shocks. Based on the above-mentioned key findings,the paper identified a number of policy gaps and proposed recommendations to address them.The primary challenges that confront youth entrepreneurs are sluggish post-pandemic consumer demand and rising costs.To address these gaps,four targeted pathways are proposed: ①Demand-side boosts: implement consumption incentives and infrastructure investment to stimulate market demand; ②Financial innovation: introduce risk-differentiated credit assessments and equity-based funding for early-stage ventures; ③Tax incentives: design progressive tax benefits tailored to capital-intensive sectors and nascent businesses; ④Precision targeting: provide differentiated support-capacity-building for rural/high-school educated entrepreneurs,innovation ecosystems for urban professionals,and transition assistance for mid-career switchers. In summary,this study establishes the first systematic profile of Chinese youth entrepreneurs using microdata,validating entrepreneurships “reservoir” role in stabilizing labor markets during crises.Methodologically,it advances entrepreneurship theory through cluster analysis and dynamic modeling,revealing subgroup heterogeneity and environmental drivers.Policy-wise,the findings offer actionable solutions-such as demand-side stimulation,financial innovation,and precision targeting-to bridge systemic gaps in youth entrepreneurship.These recommendations align with Chinas national priorities of high-quality development and inclusive growth,providing empirical grounding for policies that enhance entrepreneurial resilience and economic adaptability.

     

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