Regulation Strategy of Impact Response of Regional Integrated Energy System Based on Ultra Short Term Prediction

The comprehensive energy system can provide users with high-quality and reliable load demand through collaborative scheduling of various equipment energy units, but the increasing impact load within the system has led to a sharp increase in the difficulty of operating system prediction and a sharp decline in high energy supply reliability. Aiming at this problem, a shock response regulation strategy of regional integrated energy system based on ultra-short-term forecast is proposed. Firstly, a comprehensive energy physics model and a power outage scenario model are established, and a multi energy coupling subsystem is constructed. Then, the ultra short term prediction model based on long short-term memory network and support vector machine is established, and hierarchical scheduling optimization is implemented through rolling optimization and real-time feedback correction. Finally, the historical data of a comprehensive energy system in a certain park is taken as an example for simulation. The calculation results show that the proposed method effectively improves the system prediction accuracy and load scheduling efficiency.