面向精细化规划的容载比参数优化方法研究

Research on Capacity-load Ratio Parameter Optimization for Fine Planning

  • 摘要: 容载比是电网规划建设的重要参考指标,目前容载比取值的确定方法单一,无法精准地满足电力负荷发展不均衡、负荷特性差异较大地区的电网需求,不利于电网的可靠运行和投资效益提升。研究容载比的精细化规划方法,分析容载比的影响要素,构建理论计算参数的优化模型。采用反向传播(Backpropagation,BP)神经网络,研究电力负荷同时率与主要影响因素之间的关系,进行负荷分散系数的优化;充分考虑电压偏差、网络损耗、线路N−1通过率等影响,提出计及电网安全性和电能质量的变压器安全运行率参数优化方法;研究负荷增长和负荷密度对负荷发展储备系数的影响,提出基于负荷规模的变电站容量储备年限计算模型。以实际地区电网数据验证所提面向精细化的容载比参数优化方法的可行性。构建的参数优化模型,能充分考虑地区电网的发展水平,实现地区容载比精细化规划与差异化配置,对电网精准规划有重要的指导意义。

     

    Abstract: Capacity-load ratio is an important reference index for power grid planning and construction. At present, the determination method of capacity-load ratio is single, which cannot accurately meet the needs of power grid in areas with unbalanced development of power loads and large differences in load characteristics, which is not conducive to the reliable operation of power grid and the improvement of investment benefits. The fine planning method of capacity-load ratio is studied, the factors affecting capacity-load ratio are analyzed, and the optimization model of theoretical calculation parameters is built. Backpropagation(BP) neural network is used to study the relationship between power load simultaneity rate and main influencing factors, and to optimize the load dispersion coefficient. Considering the influence of voltage deviation, network loss, line N−1 pass rate and so on, the optimization method of transformer safe running rate parameters considering the safety of power grid and power quality is proposed. The influence of load growth and load density on load development reserve coefficient is studied, and a calculation model of substation capacity reserve life based on load scale is proposed. The feasibility of the proposed refined capacity-load ratio parameter optimization method is verified by actual regional power grid data. The parameter optimization model constructed can fully consider the development level of regional power grid and realize the refined planning and differentiated allocation of regional capacity-load ratio, which has important guiding significance for the accurate planning of power grid.

     

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