基于数据清洗和组合模型的超短期风电功率预测

Ultra-short-term Wind Power Prediction Based on Data Cleaning and Combined Models

  • 摘要: 在“碳达峰、碳中和”国家战略目标的推动下,风力发电作为清洁能源体系的重要组成部分,其功率预测精度的提升已成为新能源领域需要解决的关键性问题。目前影响风电功率预测精度的主要制约因素包括两个方面:一是数据采集过程中产生的异常值问题,二是气象条件对发电功率的影响。针对这一问题,提出一种综合的解决方案,在数据预处理阶段,采用四分位法与孤立森林(Isolation forest,iForest)算法相结合的异常值检测方法;在特征选取方面,通过ReliefF算法与最小冗余-最大相关性(Minimal redundancy maximal relevance,mRMR)方法进行组合使用,实现了对多维气象特征的科学筛选,有效降低了数据维度;最后,通过构建基于组合模型的预测框架,显著提升了超短期风电功率预测的准确性,同时对所提数据清洗、分解方法以及降维方法进行预测验证。仿真试验结果表明,所提方法在提高预测精度方面有较好的效果,具有一定的可行性。

     

    Abstract: Driven by the national strategic goal of “carbon peak, carbon neutrality”, wind power generation is an important part of the clean energy system, and the improvement of its power prediction accuracy has become a key issue to be solved in the field of new energy. At present, the main constraints affecting the prediction accuracy of wind power include two aspects: one is the outlier problem in the process of data collection, and the other is the influence of meteorological conditions on the power generation. To solve this problem, a comprehensive solution is proposed. In the data preprocessing stage, the outlier detection method combining quartile method and isolation forest(iForest) algorithm is adopted. In the aspect of feature selection, ReliefF algorithm and minimal redundancy maximal relevance(mRMR) method are combined to realize scientific screening of multi-dimensional meteorological features and effectively reduce the data dimension. Finally, the accuracy of ultra-short-term wind power prediction is significantly improved by constructing a prediction framework based on the combined model. Meanwhile, the data cleaning, decomposition and dimensionality reduction methods proposed in this paper are validated. The simulation results show that the method proposed in this paper has a good effect on improving the prediction accuracy and has certain feasibility.

     

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