基于集成学习的调频辅助服务市场价格区间预测

A Market Price Prediction Model of Frequency Modulation Auxiliary Service Based on Ensemble Learning

  • 摘要: 为解决调频辅助服务市场主体如何依据合理价格预测区间高效参与竞价申报难题,提出基于集成学习的调频辅助服务市场价格预测方法,以期增加调频市场主体的投资收益。首先,给出随机森林、XGBoost、LightGBM等机器学习方法原理,并引入多类型算法开展集成学习的基本架构;其次,考虑气象、新能源、用电负荷、外送等功率波动与调频需求耦合特性,通过对日前电能量市场公布的边界数据进行分析,建立基于随机森林-XGBoost-LightGBM多模型集成学习的调频价格区间预测模型,并建立区间预测评价指标。最后,以某省电力调频辅助服务市场为实例开展仿真计算,并验证了所提方法在调频辅助服务市场主体参与市场申报的有效性和经济可行性。

     

    Abstract: In order to solve the problem of how to effectively participate in bidding declaration according to the reasonable price prediction interval, a price prediction method of frequency modulation auxiliary service market based on integrated learning is proposed, in order to increase the investment income of frequency modulation market participants. Firstly, the principles of machine learning methods, such as random forest, XGBoost and LightGBM are given, and the basic architecture of multi-type algorithms for integrated learning is introduced. Secondly, considering the coupling characteristics of power fluctuations, such as meteorology, new energy, power load, delivery and frequency modulation demand, through the analysis of the boundary data published by the day-ahead electric energy market, a frequency modulation price interval prediction model based on random forest-XGBoost-LightGBM multi-model ensemble learning is established, and an interval prediction evaluation index is established. Finally, the simulation calculation is carried out with a provincial power frequency modulation auxiliary service market as an example, and the effectiveness and economic feasibility of the proposed method in the market application of frequency modulation auxiliary service market entities are verified.

     

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