基于模态分解与重构的两阶段光储微网多任务短期预测

Multi-task Prediction of Two-stage Optical Storage Microgrids Based on Mode Decomposition and Reconstruction

  • 摘要: 光伏与用电负荷预测是光储微网调度的重要部分,为提高短期联合预测的精度,提出一种基于模态分解与重构的两阶段光储微网多任务短期预测组合模型。首先,在第一阶段利用自适应噪声完备集合经验模态分解算法(Complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition,CEEMDAN)对原始光伏和用电负荷序列进行多尺度分解,得到多个模态分量。其次利用样本熵值(Sample Entropy,SE)重构算法对各分量的复杂度进行度量与排序,根据样本熵值将分量进行分组重构,降低序列复杂度。最后,在第二阶段使用基于软共享机制的FTCN-MOSE多任务组合模型对各重构分量进行联合预测,充分挖掘光伏与负荷之间的潜在关联特征,将预测结果叠加得到最终的光伏发电功率与用电负荷功率。通过与传统模型进行对比试验,结果表明所提模型耗时更少,具有更高的预测精度。

     

    Abstract: Photovoltaic and power consumption load forecasting is an important part of the dispatching of photovoltaic storage microgrids. In order to improve the precision of short-term joint prediction, a two-stage multi-task short-term prediction model based on modal decomposition and reconstruction is proposed. Firstly, in the first stage, the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition(CEEMDAN) algorithm is utilized to perform multi-scale decomposition on the original photovoltaic and power consumption load sequences, obtaining multiple modal components. Secondly, the sample entropy(SE) reconstruction algorithm is used to measure and rank the complexity of each component. The components are grouped and reconstructed according to the sample entropy to reduce the sequence complexity. Finally, in the second stage, the FTCN-MOSE multi-task combination model based on the soft sharing mechanism is used to jointly predict each reconstructed component, fully explore the potential correlation characteristics between photovoltaic and load, and superimpose the prediction results to obtain the final photovoltaic power generation power and power consumption load power. Compared with the traditional model, the results show that the proposed model takes less time and has higher prediction accuracy.

     

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