基于IWOA-ELM的短期电力系统负荷预测

Short-term Load Forecasting for Power System Based on IWOA-ELM

  • 摘要: 短期电力负荷的精准预测可以保障电力系统运行的安全性和提高电能利用率,为得到准确可靠的短期负荷预测结果,提出一种改进鲸鱼优化算法(Improved whale optimization algorithm,IWOA)优化极限学习机(Extreme learning machine,ELM)的短期电力负荷组合预测模型。首先,利用Logistic混沌映射初始化鲸鱼算法的种群,通过非线性收敛因子增强鲸鱼算法在各阶段的搜索能力,从而实现对ELM输入权重和偏差的优化;然后依据优化参数建立IWOA-ELM预测模型对数据集进行预测,输出最终负荷预测结果。最后以甘肃省某地区实际负荷数据作为数据集进行试验分析,结果显示,IWOA-ELM模型得到的评价指标平均绝对百分比误差(Mean absolute percentage error,MAPE)、方均根误差(Root mean square error,RMSE)和平均绝对误差(Mean absolute error,MAE)分别为0.87%、1.12 MW、1.08 MW,其准确性高于单一算法的负荷预测模型,该模型能够提高短期电力负荷预测的准确性和可靠性。

     

    Abstract: Accurate prediction of short-term power loads can guarantee the security of power system operation and improve the utilization rate of electric energy. To obtain accurate and reliable short-term load prediction results, an improved whale optimization algorithm(IWOA) is proposed to optimize the extreme learning machine(ELM) short-term power load combination prediction model. First, the population of the whale algorithm is initialized using Logistic chaos mapping, and the search ability of the whale algorithm at each stage is enhanced by a nonlinear convergence factor, to realize the optimization of the input weights and deviations of the ELM. Then the IWOA-ELM prediction model is established based on the optimized parameters to predict the dataset and output the final load prediction results. Finally, the actual load data of a region in Gansu Province is used as a dataset for experimental analysis, the experimental results show that the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE), root mean square error(RMSE) and mean absolute error(MAE) of the IWOA-ELM model are 0.87%, 1.12 MW, 1.08 MW, which are more accurate than that of a single algorithm's load forecasting model, and the model can improve the accuracy and reliability.

     

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