基于时空卷积神经网络的短期光伏预测

Multisite Short-term Photovoltaic Prediction Based on Spatiotemporal Convolutional Neural Network

  • 摘要: 光伏(Photovoltaic,PV)发电的准确预测对于智能电网和可再生能源市场至关重要。为提高PV发电的预测精度,提出一种基于时空卷积神经网络(Spatiotemporal convolutional neural networks,STCNN)的短期光伏预测模型。为了将多站点光伏发电的空间和时间特征关系捕捉到一维中,引入贪婪相邻算法(Greedy adjacent algorithm,GAA)的排序方法来串行化二维光伏站点信息,同时保持局部光伏站点彼此相邻,将PV数据预处理成捕获时空相关性的时空矩阵,便于卷积神经网络的学习。对三个典型城市(厦门、泉州、福州)的多站点光伏发电进行广泛试验,结果表明,所提STCNN模型在单个光伏站点6 h预测范围内,厦门、泉州和福州站点的平均绝对百分比误差分别为4.6%、4.8%和5.3%,与传统方法相比,预测精度提高了33%。当多个光伏站点聚合时,所提STCNN模型与现有方法相比,误差可以降低40%。

     

    Abstract: Accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is crucial for the smart grid and renewable energy market. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of PV power generation, a short-term photovoltaic prediction model based on spatiotemporal convolutional neural network (STCNN) is proposed. In order to capture the spatial and temporal characteristics of multi site photovoltaic power generation in one-dimensional space, a greedy adjacent algorithm (GAA) sorting method is introduced to serialize the information of two-dimensional photovoltaic stations, while keeping local photovoltaic stations adjacent to each other. The PV data is preprocessed into a spatiotemporal matrix that captures spatiotemporal correlation, facilitating the learning of convolutional neural networks. Extensive experiments are conducted on multi site photovoltaic power generation in three typical cities (Xiamen, Quanzhou, and Fuzhou). The results showed that the proposed STCNN model had an average absolute percentage error of 4.6%, 4.8%, and 5.3% for Xiamen, Quanzhou, and Fuzhou within the 6-hour prediction range of a single photovoltaic site, respectively. Compared with traditional methods, the prediction accuracy improved by 33%. When multiple photovoltaic sites are aggregated, the STCNN model proposed can reduce the error by 40% compared to existing methods.

     

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