基于混合t-t Location-scale分布的风电功率波动特性研究

Characterisation of Wind Power Fluctuation Based on Mixed t-t Location-scale Distribution

  • 摘要: 风电功率波动的随机性和不确定性是限制风能消纳的主要原因之一,风电功率的波动会影响风电功率的准确预测。定量描述风电功率的波动特性成为解决这些问题的关键。从风电功率波动“尖峰厚尾”的特征出发,将t分布与t Location-scale分布两者的优势结合,提出混合t-t Location-scale分布。为了避免以往方法参数估计精度不足的问题,引入一种智能优化算法——正余弦优化算法,来进行分布模型的参数估计。将所提模型与正态分布、混合t Location-scale分布等5种模型进行对比,并从15 min、30 min和45 min 3个滑动平均时段长度验证了模型的适用性。通过我国西北地区3个风电场的历史数据进行仿真试验,对比3个评价指标,发现所提模型对风电功率波动具有很好的拟合性能。

     

    Abstract: The randomness and uncertainty of wind power fluctuation is one of the main reasons limiting the consumption of wind energy, and the fluctuation of wind power affects the accurate prediction of wind power. How to quantitatively characterize the fluctuation of wind power has become the key to solve these problems. Therefore, a mixed t-t Location-scale distribution is proposed by combining the advantages of t-distribution and t-location-scale distribution from the characteristic of "sharp peaks and thick tails" of wind power fluctuation. In addition, in order to avoid the problem of insufficient parameter estimation accuracy in previous methods, an intelligent optimization algorithm, the sine cosine optimization algorithm, is introduced for the parameter estimation of the distribution model. The proposed model is compared with five models, including normal distribution and mixed t Location-scale distribution, and the applicability of the model is verified from three sliding average time period lengths of 15 min, 30 min and 45 min. Finally, the simulation test is conducted by the historical data of three wind farms in Northwest China, comparing the three evaluation indexes, and it is found that the proposed model has a very good fitting performance for the fluctuation of wind power.

     

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