虚拟电厂中不确定因素及其处理方法综述

Review of Uncertainties and Their Treatment in Virtual Power Plants

  • 摘要: 由于全球对气候变化的日益关注,可再生能源(Renewable energy sources,RES)在电力系统中的渗透率在过去几年中显著增加。然而,将可再生能源并入电力市场存在很大的问题。风电、光伏等可再生能源出力具有高度不确定性,它们与负荷需求的相关性并不总是得到保证,从而降低了系统的可靠性。为了解决这些问题,虚拟电厂(Virtual power plant,VPP)作为一种创新性解决方案日益受到关注,成为提升电力系统稳定性的重要手段。虚拟电厂通过聚合多种分布式能源资源,提升了系统的灵活性和响应能力,从而减轻了不确定性带来的影响,尽管如此,不确定性仍是虚拟电厂研究中的重要因素。不确定因素可以分为源侧-可再生能源的不确定性、荷侧-负荷需求的不确定性和需求响应的不确定性。在此分类基础上,介绍虚拟电厂的相关概念结构、发展历程以及虚拟电厂中的不确定性;对处理不确定性的方法进行总结和对比分析;分别对上述不确定性分析以及处理其不确定性的方法分类进行描述;最后总结全文并展望未来虚拟电厂不确定性的研究方向。

     

    Abstract: The penetration of renewable energy sources(RES) into the electricity system has increased significantly over the past few years due to growing global concerns about climate change. However, there are significant problems in integrating renewable energy sources into the electricity market. Renewable energy outputs, such as wind power and photovoltaics, are highly uncertain. Their correlation with load demand is not always guaranteed, thus reducing system reliability. In order to solve these problems, virtual power plant(VPP) is gaining attention as an innovative solution to improve the stability of power systems. Virtual power plants mitigate the impact of uncertainty by aggregating multiple distributed energy resources, which improves the flexibility and responsiveness of the system, nevertheless, uncertainty is still an important factor to be studied in virtual power plants. Uncertainties are classified into: source-side-renewable energy uncertainty, load-side-load demand uncertainty and demand response uncertainty. On the basis of this classification, the relevant conceptual structure of virtual power plant, its development history and uncertainty in virtual power plant are introduced, then the methods of dealing with uncertainty are compared and analyzed, then the above classifications, uncertainty analyses, and methods of dealing with their uncertainty are described, respectively, and finally the direction of the future research on uncertainty in virtual power plant are prospected.

     

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