Abstract:
The study aims to quantitatively evaluate the economic differences between fuel cell trucks(FCT) and battery electric trucks(BET) in representative freight transport scenarios in China based on a total cost of ownership(TCO) framework. A TCO model covering vehicle purchase, energy supply, operation and maintenance, and end-of-life residual value is developed. Cold-chain logistics, urban short-haul transport, closed-area operation, short-distance shuttle transport, and long-haul trunk logistics are selected as typical application cases, and key parameters such as policy subsidies, hydrogen prices, and electricity tariffs are incorporated into sensitivity analyses. The results indicate that, under current cost structures, the TCO of FCT remains higher than that of BET in all scenarios except closed-area operation, with hydrogen price and system cost identified as the dominant influencing factors. Under projected cost-reduction pathways, FCT demonstrates a notable cost advantage in closed-area operation and short-distance shuttle transport when the hydrogen price decreases to 31.4 CNY/kg. By 2040, with further reductions in hydrogen production, storage, and transportation costs enabled by large-scale deployment, FCT is expected to achieve cost competitiveness in long-haul heavy-duty transport when the hydrogen price declines to 10.1 CNY/kg. The findings provide quantitative evidence for policy formulation in the hydrogen transportation sector and offer references for industry decision-making in vehicle technology planning, refueling infrastructure development, and market application strategies.