基于情景分析的中国氢燃料电池卡车经济性评估:全生命周期成本视角

Economic Evaluation of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trucks in China under Scenario Analysis: A Total Cost of Ownership Perspective

  • 摘要: 本研究旨在基于全生命周期成本 (Total cost of ownership, TCO)框架,定量评估燃料电池卡车 (Fuel cell trucks, FCT) 与纯电动卡车 (Battery electric trucks, BET)在中国典型货运场景中的经济性差异。研究构建了覆盖车辆购置、能源补给、运维及残值回收的TCO模型,选取冷链物流、城市短途、封闭场景、短倒运输和长途干线运输作为代表性应用场景,并将政策补贴、氢气价格、电价等关键参数纳入敏感性分析。结果显示,在当前成本结构下,除封闭场景外,燃料电池卡车的TCO均高于纯电动卡车,氢气价格和系统成本是影响其经济性的主导因素。在未来成本下降路径的预测下,当氢气价格降至31.4元/kg时,燃料电池重卡在封闭场景与短倒运输中呈现明显的成本优势;至2040年,若氢气制备与储运成本进一步下降并实现规模化应用,当氢气价格降至10.1元/kg时,其在长途重载运输场景中的TCO有望与纯电动卡车形成竞争。研究结论可为氢能交通领域的政策制定提供定量依据,并为产业界在车辆技术路线选择、补能基础设施规划及市场应用定位方面提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The study aims to quantitatively evaluate the economic differences between fuel cell trucks(FCT) and battery electric trucks(BET) in representative freight transport scenarios in China based on a total cost of ownership(TCO) framework. A TCO model covering vehicle purchase, energy supply, operation and maintenance, and end-of-life residual value is developed. Cold-chain logistics, urban short-haul transport, closed-area operation, short-distance shuttle transport, and long-haul trunk logistics are selected as typical application cases, and key parameters such as policy subsidies, hydrogen prices, and electricity tariffs are incorporated into sensitivity analyses. The results indicate that, under current cost structures, the TCO of FCT remains higher than that of BET in all scenarios except closed-area operation, with hydrogen price and system cost identified as the dominant influencing factors. Under projected cost-reduction pathways, FCT demonstrates a notable cost advantage in closed-area operation and short-distance shuttle transport when the hydrogen price decreases to 31.4 CNY/kg. By 2040, with further reductions in hydrogen production, storage, and transportation costs enabled by large-scale deployment, FCT is expected to achieve cost competitiveness in long-haul heavy-duty transport when the hydrogen price declines to 10.1 CNY/kg. The findings provide quantitative evidence for policy formulation in the hydrogen transportation sector and offer references for industry decision-making in vehicle technology planning, refueling infrastructure development, and market application strategies.

     

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