基于机器学习和有限元仿真的孤立档架空线路脱冰响应特性参数预测方法

Prediction Method for Response Characteristics Parameters of Isolated-span Overhead Lines after Ice-shedding Based on Machine Learning and Finite Element Simulation

  • 摘要: 架空线路脱冰引起的不平衡张力及导线跳跃会导致线间闪络、杆塔倒塌等事故,严重影响电网的安全运行。在此提出了基于机器学习和有限元仿真的孤立档架空线路脱冰响应特性参数预测方法。建立孤立档架空线路的有限元仿真模型并验证了模型有效性,确定7个模型输入参数,通过特征提取获得反映脱冰线路电气和机械特性的6个关键输出参数;利用数值模拟方法得到不同输入参数工况下脱冰线路的输出参数,构建样本数据集;建立BP神经网络、RBF神经网络、SVM神经网络和RF神经网络4类回归预测模型,通过机器学习预测了脱冰线路关键输出参数;得到孤立档架空线路脱冰响应特性的最优预测算法。结果表明,RF回归预测算法是最优的回归预测算法,其对竖向冰跳高度和不平衡张力预测结果的R2均大于0.92,MAE和MSE在4类回归预测算法中均为最优,证明了该回归预测方法的准确性。提出孤立档架空线路脱冰响应特性参数预测方法,可以方便快捷地实现线路脱冰响应特性参数的预测,降低因线路脱冰导致的事故风险,为重冰区线路脱冰策略和应急预案的制定提供一定参考。

     

    Abstract: The unbalanced tension and wire jumping caused by the ice-shedding of overhead lines may lead to accidents such as inter-line flashover and tower collapse, seriously affecting the safe operation of the power grid. The prediction method for the response characteristics of isolated-span overhead lines after ice-shedding based on machine learning and finite element simulation. Firstly, the finite element simulation model of isolated-span overhead lines is established and validated. Seven model input parameters are determined. Six key output parameters reflecting the electrical and mechanical characteristics of overhead lines are obtained through feature extraction. Secondly, numerical simulation methods are used to obtain the output parameters of overhead lines after ice-shedding under different input parameter conditions, and the sample dataset is constructed. Then, four types of regression prediction models including BP, RBF, SVM, RF are established and machine learning is used to predict the key output parameters of overhead lines after ice-shedding. Finally, the optimal prediction algorithm for response characteristics parameters of isolated-span overhead lines is obtained. The results show that the RF regression prediction algorithm is the optimal regression prediction algorithm with R2 values greater than 0.92 for predicting vertical jump height. The MAE and MSE of unbalanced tension are the best among the four types of regression prediction algorithms, indicating the accuracy of this regression prediction method. The proposed method for predicting the response characteristics of isolated-span overhead lines after ice-shedding can conveniently and quickly achieve the prediction of ice-shedding response characteristic parameters, which will reduce the risk of accidents caused by ice-shedding of transmission lines, and provide reference for the formulation of ice-shedding strategies and emergency plans for transmission lines in heavy ice areas.

     

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