基于因果推断的源荷双侧长时间尺度共模作用分析方法

Causal Inference Approach to Long-term Common-mode Interaction Analysis Between Power Supply and Load

  • 摘要: 为分析电力系统源荷双侧特征及多因素耦合影响机制,提出一种基于因果推断的长时间尺度源荷共模作用机理研究方法。首先,分析不同气象因素与新能源出力和负荷之间的相关性;其次,采用贪婪快速因果推断算法(Greedy fast causal inference,GFCI)构建因果图识别源荷与各因素间的因果关系,并结合双机器学习(Double machine learning,DML)方法构建因果效应评估模型,量化关键因素的动态影响,最后基于开放数据集对不同因果推断方法识别的结果进行对比分析。算例分析结果显示:温度对负荷具有显著影响,同时由于温度积累效应,极端高温下,温度每升高一度,温度对负荷的因果效应影响降低200 MW;风速对风机出力影响呈现分段非线性特征,在低速区间为正向作用,极端大风下则呈现负面影响;太阳辐照度与光伏出力在低照度区间呈现显著因果效应,超出300 W/m2因果效应开始下降。所提方法能定性识别气象要素与源荷的因果路径,并定量评估不同因素的因果效应强度。

     

    Abstract: To analyze the characteristics of both generation and load sides and the coupling effects of multiple influencing factors in power systems, a causal inference-based methodology to investigate the long-time-scale common-mode mechanisms between power sources and loads is proposed. First, correlations between meteorological factors, renewable energy generation, and electricity load are analyzed. Next, the greedy fast causal inference(GFCI) algorithm is employed to construct a causal graph, identifying causal relationships among the power sources, loads, and various influencing factors. Subsequently, a double machine learning(DML) approach is applied to quantify the dynamic causal effects of key influencing factors. Finally, a comparative analysis is conducted using publicly available datasets to evaluate the effectiveness of different causal inference methods. Case study results indicate that temperature significantly influences electricity load; specifically, due to the cumulative temperature effect under extreme heat conditions, the causal impact of temperature on load decreases by 200 MW per degree increase. The influence of wind speed on wind power output demonstrates segmented nonlinear characteristics, exerting a positive effect in low-speed ranges and turning negative during extreme high winds. The causal effect between solar irradiance and photovoltaic power output is significant at low irradiance levels, whereas it begins to decline once irradiance exceeds 300 W/m2. The proposed method can qualitatively identify causal pathways between meteorological factors and source-load dynamics, and quantitatively evaluate the strength of causal effects from various influencing factors.

     

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