基于KAN-MPC的能源互联网双层能源管理策略优化

Optimization of Two-layer Energy Management Strategy for Energy Internet Based on KAN-MPC

  • 摘要: 针对高比例可再生能源并网导致的能源互联网(Energy internet,EI)负荷预测精度低、动态响应慢以及设备寿命退化等问题,本文提出一种基于Kolmogorov-Arnold网络(Kolmogorov-Arnold network,KAN)与模型预测控制(Model predictive control,MPC)协同优化的双层能源管理框架。首先,构建KAN驱动的负荷预测模型,显著提升预测精度;其次,设计MPC滚动优化模型,提升系统动态响应能力;最后,设计“预测-决策-补偿”闭环架构,形成协同优化的双层策略。算例分析表明,所提方法负荷预测性能优越,其均方根误差达到12.34 kW,决定系数达到0.995 6,平均绝对百分比误差达1.82%;控制调度功率波动抑制率达83.4%,超调量稳定在29.5 kW内;经济性优化使日均购售电成本降至358.6元,电池损耗成本占比降至0.198,储能系统循环寿命提升约20%。研究成果显著提升了高比例可再生能源并网环境下EI的运行经济性与鲁棒性,通过精准预测、高效调度和设备保护,有效降低了系统运行成本,提升了供电可靠性,并延长了关键设备寿命,为能源互联网实现更高效、经济、可靠的运行提供了创新解决方案,对推动高比例可再生能源安全稳定并网和能源转型具有重要实践意义。

     

    Abstract: To address issues such as low load prediction accuracy, slow dynamic response, and equipment degradation caused by the high proportion of renewable energy grid connection in the energy internet(EI), a two-layer energy management framework is proposed based on the collaborative optimization of the Kolmogorov-Arnold network(KAN) and model predictive control(MPC). First, a KAN-driven load forecasting model is constructed to significantly improve forecasting accuracy. Second, an MPC rolling optimization model is designed to enhance the system’s dynamic response capability. Finally, a “prediction-decision-compensation” closed-loop architecture is designed to form a two-layer strategy for collaborative optimization. Case study analysis shows that the proposed method achieves superior load forecasting performance, with a root mean square error of 12.34 kW, a coefficient of determination of 0.995 6, and an average absolute percentage error of 1.82%; the power fluctuation suppression rate of control scheduling reaches 83.4%, with overshoot stabilized within 29.5 kW. Economic optimization reduces the average daily power purchase and sale cost to 358.6 RMB, lowers the battery wear cost ratio to 0.198, and increases the energy storage system’s cycle life by approximately 20%. The research findings significantly enhance the operational economic efficiency and robustness of EI in high-proportion renewable energy grid-connected environments. Through precise prediction, efficient scheduling, and equipment protection, they effectively reduce system operating costs, improve power supply reliability, and extend the lifespan of critical equipment. This provides an innovative solution for achieving more efficient, economical, and reliable operation of the energy internet, holding significant practical significance for promoting the safe and stable grid connection of high-proportion renewable energy and advancing energy transition.

     

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