计及一次能源价格波动的非预期概率化供需平衡方法

Non-anticipativity Probabilistic Supply-demand Balance Method Considering Primary Energy Price Fluctuations

  • 摘要: 为了解决新能源出力不确定性和煤炭、天然气等一次能源价格波动下高比例可再生能源电力系统面临的供需平衡风险问题,考虑新能源出力不确定性和未来实现值非预期性,提出一种计及一次能源价格波动的非预期概率化供需平衡分析方法,模型中引入仿射函数对风光出力非预期性进行刻画,进一步构建火电出力调整不确定性约束,将包含不确定随机变量的约束式转化为模糊集下的分布鲁棒机会约束,基于条件风险价值理论将电力平衡风险解析化表达,实现了随机变量参与时序模拟。通过IEEE 30节点系统开展算例分析,结果显示,煤炭价格上涨会造成切负荷增加和弃电量减少,天然气价格上涨则会带来切负荷和弃电量均增加。分析发现,这是由于煤电在高比例新能源电力系统中的功能定位是电量和调峰支撑,气电由于其运行和启停高灵活性主要用于快速调节支撑,因此导致煤电和气电在一次能源价格变化下的差异化影响。

     

    Abstract: To address the supply-demand balance risks in high-penetration renewable energy power systems under uncertainties of renewable energy output and price fluctuations of primary energy sources such as coal and natural gas, a non-anticipative probabilistic supply-demand balance analysis method that incorporates primary energy price volatility is proposed. The model accounts for the non-anticipative nature of renewable energy output(wind and solar) using affine functions and constructs uncertainty constraints for thermal power generation adjustments. Constraints containing uncertain stochastic variables are transformed into distributionally robust chance constraints under fuzzy sets. Based on the conditional value-at-risk(CVaR) theory, the power balance risk is analytically expressed, enabling stochastic variables to participate in sequential simulations. Case studies on the IEEE 30-bus system demonstrate that rising coal prices increase load shedding while reducing renewable curtailment, whereas natural gas price hikes lead to simultaneous increases in both load shedding and curtailment. Analysis reveals that coal-fired power plants primarily provide energy amount and peaking support in high-renewable systems, while gas-fired units, with their operational flexibility, serve as fast-response regulators, thus leading to differentiated impacts of coal-fired and gas-fired power under primary energy price fluctuations.

     

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