基于VMD-EWT-LSTM的电力物资质量预测方法

Power Material Quality Prediction Method Based on VMD-EWT-LSTM

  • 摘要: 在电力设备质量管理领域,建立一种智能化的电力设备质量风险防控方法对于推进数字电网建设具有重要意义。针对现有电力设备质量风险防控无法做到智能化、自动化等问题,提出一种电力设备质量评估量化指标。在此基础之上,建立一种基于VMD-EWT-LSTM的电力设备质量预测模型。该模型首先利用变模态分解方法将复杂序列分成若干简单子序列,同时利用经验小波分解算法分解残差序列,对于得到的子序列,采用长短时记忆网络对各种子序列建立预测模型,将预测结果汇总得到最终预测结果。仿真结果表明,所建立的预测模型相较于其他预测模型具有较高的预测精度,RMSE达到0.174,MAE达到0.143,MAPE达到13.360,对于电力设备质量风险防控模型的建立奠定了基础,对推进数字电网建设具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: In the field of power equipment quality management, it is of great significance to establish an intelligent power equipment quality risk prevention and control method to promote the construction of digital power grid. Aiming at the problems that the existing power equipment quality risk prevention and control cannot be intelligent and automated, a quantitative index for power equipment quality assessment is firstly proposed. On this basis, a power equipment quality prediction model based on VMD-EWT-LSTM is established. Firstly, the variable modal decomposition method is used to decompose the complex sequence into a number of simple subsequences, and at the same time the empirical wavelet decomposition algorithm is used to decompose the residual sequences, for the obtained subsequences, the long and short-term memory network is used to establish the prediction model for the various subsequences, and the prediction results are summed up to obtain the final prediction results. Simulation results show that the established prediction model has higher prediction accuracy compared with other prediction models, its RMSE, MAE, MAPE are 0.174, 0.143 and 13.360, respectively, which lays the foundation for the establishment of the power equipment quality risk prevention and control model, and is of great significance for the promotion of the construction of digital power grid.

     

/

返回文章
返回