基于弹性管模型预测控制的多能微网群能量优化管理

Energy Optimization Management for Integrated Energy Microgrid Clusters Based on Flexible Tube Model Predictive Control

  • 摘要: 可再生能源出力和负荷需求的固有不确定性使得多能微网群能量优化管理成为极具挑战性的重要问题。提出一种计及电、热能点对点交易机制的多能微网集群能量优化管理架构,该架构采用基于管模型预测控制理论的两阶段滚动时域协同优化方案,以增强能量优化管理策略在源、荷双侧不确定性影响下的可实施性。为克服常规管模型预测控制理论在应用中普遍存在的保守性问题,提出一种弹性管模型预测控制改进技术,可根据滚动优化时域内源、荷预测精度自适应调整“管”的外形,实现优化策略鲁棒性与经济性的灵活协调。此外,考虑到待求解模型具有显著的非凸、非线性、多维变量以及去中心化特点,设计了一种新型分布式分解协调算法进行模型求解。算例结果表明,所提方法能够保障能量优化管理策略具备较好经济效益和较高能源利用效率的同时,兼具应对不确定性的鲁棒性。

     

    Abstract: Given the ineluctable uncertainties of renewable generation and load demand, it becomes challenging to achieve optimal energy management for integrated energy microgrid clusters under acceptable performance. To overcome this challenge, a novel two-layer energy optimization management framework is proposed based on tube-based model predictive control for integrated energy microgrid clusters with a peer-to-peer energy transaction mechanism, which significantly enhances the enforceability of optimal energy management strategies under the influence of uncertainty factors. Furthermore, to overcome the conservatism common in the application of conventional tube model predictive control technology, a flexible tube model predictive control technology is proposed, which enhances the strategy with a higher degree of elasticity to obtain a trade-off between the operational robustness and cost reduction under different convincing levels for renewable prediction, by adaptively adjusting the shape of the “tube” according to the rolling optimization time domain internal source and load prediction accuracy. Case studies on typically integrated energy microgrid clusters demonstrate that the proposed method can ensure that the optimal energy optimization management strategy has impressive economic benefits, renewable energy utilization efficiency, and robustness in confronting high system uncertainties.

     

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