基于深度学习的变压器超短期顶层油温预测方法

Deep Learning Based Method for Predicting Short Term Top Oil Temperature in Transformers

  • 摘要: 为了关联历史数据与预测数据,提升变压器超短期顶层油温预测精度,对比不同模型预测效果,提出一种基于深度学习的变压器超短期顶层油温预测方法。该方法基于长短期记忆神经网络和贝叶斯理论优化为基础,利用主变压器油温值、高压侧电流值、环境温度值、高压侧有功值、环境相对湿度等数据信息在主成分分析白化处理,通过优化网络超参数后的深度学习模型拟合超短期变化趋势,实现深度学习下的变压器超短期顶层油温预测。利用贝叶斯优化方法通过较少的步数寻找到较好的超参数组合,进一步缩小历史数据信息对预测模型的影响。试验结果表明,所提算法模型在一周内的数据预测误差均在±3.5%以内,相比其他两种预测模型具有更好的预测精度。

     

    Abstract: To link historical and predictive data and enhance the accuracy of ultra-short-term top oil temperature predictions for transformers, the predictive performance of various models is compared and a deep learning-based method for ultra-short-term top oil temperature prediction is introduced. The proposed method is founded on the long-short-term memory neural network and Bayesian theory optimization. Data such as the main transformer oil temperature, high-voltage side current, ambient temperature, high-voltage side active power, and relative humidity are utilized for principal component analysis whitening. The deep learning model, optimized for network hyperparameters, follows to capture the ultra-short-term trends, achieving accurate predictions for the transformer’s top oil temperature using deep learning. The Bayesian optimization method efficiently identifies superior hyperparameter combinations with fewer iterations, further minimizing the impact of historical data on the prediction model. The experimental results show that the prediction error of the proposed algorithm model for data within a week is within ±3.5%, and it has better prediction accuracy compared to the other two prediction models.

     

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