基于新型循环生成对抗网络的电力系统短期负荷预测

Short-term Load Forecasting of Power Systems Based on a Novel Recurrent Generative Adversarial Network

  • 摘要: 针对提高电力系统短期负荷预测精度和预测稳定的问题,提出一种新型循环生成对抗网络(Cycle-consistent generative adversarial network,CycleGAN)。生成器和判别器分别为门控循环单元(Gated recurrent unit,GRU)和时间卷积网络(Temporal convolutional network,TCN)。生成器使用门控循环单元神经网络,能较好地适应时序预测任务和解决模型梯度问题。判别器模型使用时间卷积神经网络,在捕捉时序任务数据中的长期依赖关系上有着较好效果,并且更有效地识别生成器生成的伪造样本与真实样本之间的差异。同时,循环生成对抗网络引入了循环一致性损失函数,可以让模型在训练过程中更为充分地学习预测规律。通过算例试验,证明所提出的新模型具有更好的预测精度和稳 定性。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the problem of improving the short-term load forecasting accuracy and forecasting stability of the power system, a new type of cycle-consistent generative adversarial network(CycleGAN) is proposed. The generator and discriminator are gated recurrent unit(GRU) and temporal convolutional network(TCN), respectively. The generator uses a gated recurrent unit neural network, which is better adapted to the timing prediction task and solves the model gradient problem. The discriminator model uses a temporal convolutional neural network, which has better results in capturing long-term dependencies in the data of the temporal task and is more effective in identifying the differences between the fake samples generated by the generator and the real samples. Meanwhile, a cycle consistency loss function is introduced in CycleGAN that allows the model to learn the prediction laws more fully during the training process. Through the example experiments, it is proved that the proposed new model has better prediction accuracy and stability.

     

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