基于多源数据的风电机组可靠性模糊评估与健康预测研究

Fuzzy Evaluation and Prediction of Wind Turbine Reliability Based on Multi-source Data

  • 摘要: 针对风电机组在复杂运行环境中面临的高故障率和高昂维护成本问题,提出了一种基于SCADA系统数据的风电机组可靠性模糊评估与健康预测研究。首先,基于机组能量传递过程及SCADA数据指标集,筛选与可靠性相关的指标,构建了包含风轮系统、主轴承系统和发电机系统等关键部件的多层次可靠性评估指标体系;进一步结合随机森林算法的重要性度量、专家打分法、三角模糊数隶属度求解与模糊评价综合法,建立了科学的指标权重确定方法,完成对机组的实时运行可靠性评价;然后,开发了基于多数据特征的神经网络模型,实现风电机组健康状态预测,并通过误差分析验证模型精度;最后,通过实际案例验证表明,所提出的评价模型能够准确评估机组运行状态,为故障预警与健康管理提供有效支持。

     

    Abstract: In response to the high failure rates and expensive maintenance costs faced by wind turbines in complex operating environments, a fuzzy reliability assessment and health prediction approach for wind turbines based on SCADA system data is proposed. Initially, reliability-related indicators are selected based on the energy transfer process of the turbine and SCADA data indicators, establishing a multi-level reliability assessment index system encompassing critical components such as the rotor system, main bearing system, and generator system. Furthermore, a scientific method for determining indicator weights is established by integrating random forest algorithm importance measurements, expert scoring methods, triangular fuzzy number membership function solving, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods, enabling real-time operational reliability assessment of the turbines. Subsequently, a neural network model based on multiple data features is developed to predict the health status of wind turbines, with model accuracy verified through error analysis. Finally, validation through practical case studies demonstrated that the proposed evaluation model can accurately assess turbine operational status, providing effective support for fault early warning and health management.

     

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