极端气候条件下光伏发电功率预测方法综述

Review of Photovoltaic Power Prediction Methods under Extreme Climate Conditions

  • 摘要: 随着清洁能源的大力发展,光伏发电在新能源电力系统中的渗透率与日俱增,准确的光伏功率预测技术对电力系统优化调度至关重要。但近年来极端气候频发,对光伏发电造成严重影响,增大了光伏系统发电功率预测的难度,从而威胁到电网的稳定运行。针对极端气候条件下光伏发电功率预测方法,首先从沙尘、暴雨和降雪三个方面阐述了极端气候对光伏发电的影响,包括其作用机理和优化方法;其次分类综合讨论了现有研究中针对沙尘、暴雨和降雪气候条件下的光伏功率预测方法及各自的优缺点,并总结了目前使用较多的光伏发电功率预测精度评价指标,对评价指标的含义和适用范围进行了阐述。最后结合我国光伏功率预测技术的发展现状,对未来极端气候条件下光伏功率预测技术的发展方向进行了展望。

     

    Abstract: With the development of clean energy, the penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation in the new energy power system is increasing day by day. Accurate photovoltaic power prediction technology is very important for the optimal scheduling of power system. However, in recent years, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather has seriously affected photovoltaic power generation, which has increased the difficulty of predicting the power generation of photovoltaic systems, thus threatening the stable operation of the grid. Aiming at the prediction methods of photovoltaic power generation under extreme climate conditions, firstly the influence of extreme climate on photovoltaic power generation is discussed from three aspects: dust, rainstorm and snowfall, including its action mechanism and optimization methods. Secondly, the photovoltaic power prediction methods are classified and comprehensively discussed under the climate conditions of dust, rainstorm and snowfall in existing studies and their advantages and disadvantages, the evaluation indexes of photovoltaic power prediction accuracy that are commonly used at present are summarized, and the meaning and scope of application of evaluation indexes are expounded. Finally, based on the current situation of PV power forecasting technology in China, the future development direction of PV power forecasting technology under extreme climate conditions is forecasted.

     

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