计及负荷预测的风光柴储联供型微网系统的运行优化

Operation Optimization of Wind-solar-diesel-storage Hybrid Power System Considering Load Forecasting

  • 摘要: 微电网系统优化运行能够有效推进落实“双碳战略”,但微电网运行时未考虑负荷的动态变化及运行的多目标特性,限制了系统运行优化和可再生能源的消纳能力。针对该问题,建立由运行成本费用和环境治理费用构成的微电网总运行成本最低,以及可再生能源消纳最大化的多目标优化运行模型;针对电网负荷的动态变化,采用Holt-winters模型预测微电网系统负荷变化;最后用改进的多目标粒子群算法对微电网模型进行求解。为验证算法的可行性,以IEEE数据库中高比例新能源HRP-38标准系统和华东地区微电网为研究对象。算例表明,计及负荷预测下两类微电网系统中风电利用率分别提高了8.13%、5.23%,光伏利用率分别提高了8.59%、6.49%,系统总运行成本分别降低了8.29%、8.89%。因此,所提方法既能有效提高系统对可再生能源的消纳能力,又能降低系统的总运行成本,同时实现环境效益最大化,对微电网运行具有指导意义。

     

    Abstract: The optimal operation of the microgrid system can effectively promote the implementation of the dual “carbon strategy”. However, the dynamic changes of the load and the multi-objective characteristics of the operation are not considered during the operation of the microgrid, which limits the optimization of the system operation and the consumption capacity of renewable energy. Aiming at this problem, a multi-objective optimal operation model is established to minimize the total operating cost of microgrid and maximize the renewable energy consumption, which is composed of operating cost and cost of environmental treatment. Aiming at the dynamic change of power grid load, Holt-winters model is used to predict the load change of microgrid system. Finally, the improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve the microgrid model. In order to verify the feasibility of the algorithm, the high proportion of new energy HRP-38 standard test system and the microgrid data in East China are studied. The example shows that the wind power utilization rate of the two types of microgrid systems is increased by 8.13% and 5.23%, respectively, the photovoltaic utilization rate is increased by 8.59% and 6.49%, respectively, and the total operating cost of the system is reduced by 8.29% and 8.89%, respectively. Therefore, this proposed method can not only effectively improve the system’s ability to absorb renewable energy, but also reduce the total operating cost of the system, while maximizing environmental benefits, which has guiding significance for microgrid operation.

     

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